Abstract:
We studied drivers of habitat conversion in the Panama Canal region, where rich biodiversity in tropical rainforests currently coexists with twomajor growing cities and a plethora of economic opportunities.We examined existing administrative units (counties) with known biophysical (e.g., rainfall, topography) and socio-economic (e.g., population density, road density) characteristics. To identify associations between those characteristics and likelihood of habitat conversion to agriculture or urbanization, we used canonical correlation analysis. Two axes accounted for most of the variation among administrative units: one for urbanization and the other for agriculture. Rainfall and topography were negatively associated with urbanization, whereas population wealth was positively associated with land conversion to urban. Agriculture was most strongly associated with elevation variability and topographic complexity. To a lesser extent, agriculture was associated with rural population density, mean annual human population growth and poverty level.We hypothesize that most future habitat loss in the Panama Canal region will be from urbanization as Panama City expands and populations grow along the highway system. Decision-makers will need to emphasize preservation of forests on the edge of developments, where risk of loss is highest. These forested lands tend to become more expensive as urbanization approaches, putting them at greater risk of being converted. Nevertheless, they are still important for protection of the Canal watershed and the high levels of biodiversity in watershed forests. Land planners and decision-makers should consider the influence of socio-economic and biophysical factors when selecting forests to protect for conservation.
