Paleontological baselines for evaluating extinction risk in the modern oceans

dc.contributor.authorFinnegan, Seth
dc.contributor.authorAnderson, Sean C.
dc.contributor.authorHarnik, Paul G.
dc.contributor.authorSimpson, Carl
dc.contributor.authorTittensor, Derek P.
dc.contributor.authorByrnes, Jarrett E.
dc.contributor.authorFinkel, Zoe V.
dc.contributor.authorLindberg, David R.
dc.contributor.authorLiow, Lee Hsiang
dc.contributor.authorLockwood, Rowan
dc.contributor.authorLotze, Heike K.
dc.contributor.authorMcClain, Craig R.
dc.contributor.authorMcGuire, Jenny L.
dc.contributor.authorO'Dea, Aaron
dc.contributor.authorPandolfi, John M.
dc.date.accessioned2015-05-15T12:50:33Z
dc.date.available2015-05-15T12:50:33Z
dc.date.issued2015
dc.description.abstractMarine taxa are threatened by anthropogenic impacts, but knowledge of their extinction vulnerabilities is limited. The fossil record provides rich information on past extinctions that can help predict biotic responses. We show that over 23 million years, taxonomic membership and geographic range size consistently explain a large proportion of extinction risk variation in six major taxonomic groups. We assess intrinsic risk-extinction risk predicted by paleontologically calibrated models-for modern genera in these groups. Mapping the geographic distribution of these genera identifies coastal biogeographic provinces where fauna with high intrinsic risk are strongly affected by human activity or climate change. Such regions are disproportionately in the tropics, raising the possibility that these ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to future extinctions. Intrinsic risk provides a prehuman baseline for considering current threats to marine biodiversity.
dc.format.extent567–570
dc.identifier0036-8075
dc.identifier.citationFinnegan, Seth, Anderson, Sean C., Harnik, Paul G., Simpson, Carl, Tittensor, Derek P., Byrnes, Jarrett E., Finkel, Zoe V., Lindberg, David R., Liow, Lee Hsiang, Lockwood, Rowan, Lotze, Heike K., McClain, Craig R., McGuire, Jenny L., O'Dea, Aaron, and Pandolfi, John M. 2015. "Paleontological baselines for evaluating extinction risk in the modern oceans." <em>Science</em>, 348, (6234) 567–570. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa6635">https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa6635</a>.
dc.identifier.issn0036-8075
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10088/26265
dc.publisherAmerican Association for the Advancement of Science
dc.relation.ispartofScience 348 (6234)
dc.titlePaleontological baselines for evaluating extinction risk in the modern oceans
dc.typearticle
sro.description.unitNH-Paleobiology
sro.description.unitNMNH
sro.description.unitsi-federal
sro.identifier.doi10.1126/science.aaa6635
sro.identifier.itemID135926
sro.identifier.refworksID13438
sro.publicationPlaceWashington, DC

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