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The interacting effects of food, spring temperature, and global climate cycles on population dynamics of a migratory songbird

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dc.contributor.author Townsend, Andrea K. en
dc.contributor.author Cooch, Evan G. en
dc.contributor.author Sillett, T. Scott en
dc.contributor.author Rodenhouse, Nicholas L. en
dc.contributor.author Holmes, Richard T. en
dc.contributor.author Webster, Michael S. en
dc.date.accessioned 2015-09-01T12:10:06Z
dc.date.available 2015-09-01T12:10:06Z
dc.date.issued 2016
dc.identifier.citation Townsend, Andrea K., Cooch, Evan G., Sillett, T. Scott, Rodenhouse, Nicholas L., Holmes, Richard T., and Webster, Michael S. 2016. "<a href="https://repository.si.edu/handle/10088/26909">The interacting effects of food, spring temperature, and global climate cycles on population dynamics of a migratory songbird</a>." <em>Global Change Biology</em>. 22 (2):544&ndash;555. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13053">https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13053</a> en
dc.identifier.issn 1354-1013
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10088/26909
dc.description.abstract Although long-distance migratory songbirds are widely believed to be at risk from warming temperature trends, species capable of attempting more than one brood in a breeding season could benefit from extended breeding seasons in warmer springs. To evaluate local and global factors affecting population dynamics of the black-throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens), a double-brooded long-distance migrant, we used Pradel models to analyze 25 years of mark-recapture data collected in New Hampshire, USA. We assessed the effects of spring temperature (local weather) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation index (a global climate cycle), as well as predator abundance, insect biomass, and local conspecific density on population growth in the subsequent year. Local and global climatic conditions affected warbler populations in different ways. We found that warbler population growth was lower following El Niño years (which have been linked to poor survival in the wintering grounds and low fledging weights in the breeding grounds) than La Niña years. At a local scale, populations increased following years with warm springs and abundant late-season food, but were unaffected by spring temperature following years when food was scarce. These results indicate that the warming temperature trends might have a positive effect on recruitment and population growth of black-throated blue warblers if food abundance is sustained in breeding areas. In contrast, potential intensification of future El Niño events could negatively impact vital rates and populations of this species. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. en
dc.relation.ispartof Global Change Biology en
dc.title The interacting effects of food, spring temperature, and global climate cycles on population dynamics of a migratory songbird en
dc.type Journal Article en
dc.identifier.srbnumber 137136
dc.identifier.doi 10.1111/gcb.13053
rft.jtitle Global Change Biology
rft.volume 22
rft.issue 2
rft.spage 544
rft.epage 555
dc.description.SIUnit NZP en
dc.description.SIUnit Peer-reviewed en
dc.citation.spage 544
dc.citation.epage 555


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