RESEARCH ARTICLE Mikaela A. J. Bergenius ? Mark I. McCormick Mark G. Meekan ? D. Ross Robertson Environmental influences on larval duration, growth and magnitude of settlement of a coral reef fish Received: 9 May 2002 / Accepted: 20 December 2004 / Published online: 16 March 2005  Springer-Verlag 2005 Abstract The in?uence of environmental variables on the planktonic growth, pelagic larval duration and settle- ment magnitude was examined for the coral reef sur- geon?sh Acanthurus chirurgus. Newly settled ?sh were collected daily from patch reefs in the San Blas Archi- pelago, Caribbean Panama for 3.5 years. Environmental in?uences on growth were examined at three di?erent life history stages: from 0 to 6 days, 7 to 25 days and from 26 to 50 days after hatching. Larval growth was correlated, using multiple regression techniques, with a combination of factors including solar radiation, rain- fall, and along-shore winds. Depending on the life his- tory stage, these accounted for 13?38% of the variation in growth rates when all the months were included in the analyses. Correlations between environmental variables and growth also varied among seasons and were stron- ger in the dry than in the wet season. During the dry season solar radiation, rainfall and along-shore winds described 57%, 86% and 74% of the variability in growth between 0 and 6 days, 7 and 25 days and 26 and 50 days, respectively. During the wet season rainfall, along-shore winds and temperature only described 38% of the variability in early growth and 27% of growth just before settlement. No signi?cant model was found to describe growth 7?25 days after hatching during the wet season. Rainfall, solar radiation and along-shore winds were negatively correlated with growth up to 25 days after hatching but positively correlated as larvae ap- proached settlement at a mean age of 52 days. Over 65% of the variability in pelagic larval duration was accounted for by a regression model that included solar radiation and along-shore winds. When data sets from wet and dry seasons were analysed separately, along- shore winds accounted for 67% of the change in larval duration in the dry season, and solar radiation accounted for 23% of the variation in larval duration in the wet season. Only 22% of the variability in settlement intensity could be described by solar radiation and temperature, when all months of the year were included in the analysis. Solar radiation and rainfall were included in a regression model that accounted for 40% of the variation in numbers of ?sh settling during the dry season. This study suggests that the levels of solar radiation, along-shore winds and rainfall during the early larval life can have important e?ects on the growth, larval duration and consequently, the settlement magnitude of marine ?shes. Results also highlight the need to account for seasonality and ontogeny in studies of environmental in?uences. Introduction Marine ?sh larvae su?er very high mortality (Hjort 1914; Bailey and Houde 1989; Doherty 1991), which may be strongly in?uenced by growth rates. Larvae that grow quickly are the ?rst to attain the sizes necessary to become juveniles or enter juvenile habitats (Houde 1987). Con- sequently, fast growing ?sh are exposed to planktonic predators for a shorter period of time and may be less vulnerable to somepredators than slowgrowing?shof the same cohort (Anderson 1988; Cushing 1990). To date, most of the evidence supporting these con- cepts (collectively termed the ??growth-mortality Communicated by G.F. Humphrey, Sydney M. A. J. Bergenius (&) ? M. I. McCormick School of Marine Biology and Aquaculture, James Cook University, 4811 Townsville, Qld, Australia E-mail: mikaela.bergenius@jcu.edu.au Tel.: +61-7-47814508 Fax: +61-7-47814099 M. G. Meekan The Australian Institute of Marine Science, PO Box 40197, 0811 Casuarina MC, NT, Australia D. R. Robertson Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (Balboa Panama), Unit 0948, Balboa, Panama APO AA 34002, USA Marine Biology (2005) 147: 291?300 DOI 10.1007/s00227-005-1575-z hypothesis??) originates from studies in temperate re- gions. However, recent work has also shown that in tropical reef ?shes larval condition and/or growth are important determinants of survivorship in the plank- tonic (Bergenius et al. 2002; Wilson and Meekan 2002; Meekan et al. 2003), as well as in the post-settlement stage (Searcy and Sponaugle 2001; Vigliola and Meekan 2002; McCormick and Hoey 2004). In larval ?shes, the process of growth re?ects the interaction of an individual?s developmental physiology with a great range of physical and biological factors. These may act either directly or indirectly to in?uence growth rates. For example, water temperature may determine developmental time, growth, swimming per- formance (Meekan et al. 2003; Green and Fisher 2004) and the rate of yolk sac absorption (Fukahara 1990) of young ?sh. Additionally, some species exhibit an opti- mal temperature range for development, outside of which mortality and abnormalities increase (Polo et al. 1991). Physical factors may also interact with other biological processes to in?uence growth rates. Wind speed and direction determine small-scale turbulence in the water column and may therefore indirectly be an important in?uence on rates at which larval ?sh encounter and capture prey (Gallego et al. 1996; Dower et al. 1997; Utne-Palm and Stiansen 2002). Similarly, as ?sh larvae are visual predators, factors such as the amount of solar radiation may either aid feeding by increasing the visibility of prey, or reduce survival by rendering ?sh more visible to other predators (Fortier et al. 1996). Solar radiation may also reduce larval survival through the damaging e?ect of ultraviolet radiation on nucleic acids or through epidermal damage (Zagarese and Williamson 2001), or indirectly through its impact on secondary production (Kouwenberg et al. 1999). The aim of this study was to determine the in?uence of water temperature, wind speed and direction, rainfall and solar radiation on planktonic growth, pelagic duration and settlement intensity of the Caribbean sur- geon?sh, Acanthurus chirurgus. The results provide new foci for future studies on processes a?ecting the growth and survivorship of pelagic larvae in tropical marine systems. Materials and methods Sampling From January 1984 to January 1988, newly settled Acanthurus chirurgus were collected daily from two small patch reefs in Punta de San Blas, on the Caribbean coast of Panama (934?N, 7858?W). These reefs were located about 2.5 km apart, in shallow water and were surrounded by beds of seagrass on the back-reef of a larger fringing reef. To reduce any potential for migration of newly settled individuals reef A (about 1 m deep) was about 25 m from any other reef, while reef B (about 1.5 m deep) was about 15 m from other areas of coral. A. chirurgus are strongly site-attached for the ?rst few weeks after settlement. Newly settled A. chirurgus were collected using a hand net with the help of the anaesthetic Quinaldine. Further details and a map are in Rob- ertson (1992). In the laboratory, total and standard lengths were recorded and the sagittal otoliths removed for processing. Otolith analysis Robertson (1992) showed that peaks in settlement of Acanthurus chirurgus occurred during the new-moon half of the lunar cycle. As relatively few ?sh settled each day, individuals collected from the patch reefs were pooled into lunar cohorts from full moon to full moon to increase sample sizes. Otoliths from a sub- sample of 30% of the settlers in a lunar cohort, or at least 15 ?sh, were analysed from each month. In 24 of 43 lunar months less than 15 individuals settled and therefore the otoliths of all individuals were processed. Within each month, catches were divided among 1-mm standard length (SL) size classes and a sub-sample re- moved in proportion to the abundance of ?sh in each size class. Sagittal otoliths were mounted on a glass slide using thermoplastic cement (Crystalbond) so that the distal end of the otolith protruded over the edge of the slide. The otolith was then ground to the nucleus using wet lapping ?lm (12?0.3 lm). The Crystalbond was reheated and the polished side of the sagitta was mounted face down on the slide, so that the rostral end of the otolith could be ground down to produce a thin transverse section incorporating the nucleus. Sections were viewed at 1,100? magni?cation using a compound microscope linked to a video camera and computer. The width of each successive increment in otoliths was measured as the distance between two consecutive opaque zones using an image analysis system (OPTIMAS). Increments were always analysed along the longest radius of the otolith. It was assumed that the ?rst increment closest to the core was formed at the time of hatching (Thresher et al. 1989; Wellington and Victor 1989). Sagittal oto- liths from 11 individuals were analysed three times to determine the error involved in counts and measure- ments of increments. Four ?sh with settlement marks (Wilson and McCormick 1999) on their otoliths were excluded from the analysis to avoid the confounding e?ects of immigration of settled ?sh to patch reefs on our estimates of settlement intensity. Due to the di?- culties in identifying the details of microstructure at the otolith margin (Wilson and McCormick 1999) settlement marks are discernible only a few days after settlement. A strong linear relationship between sagittal radius and standard length of newly settled Acanthurus chir- urgus together with 25 post-settlement individuals 292 (r2=0.85, P<0.001, n=625) supported the assumption that there was a proportional relationship between otolith and somatic growth of young A. chirurgus. Daily deposition of increments within the otoliths of young A. chirurgus was validated as follows. Ten A. chirurgus were collected from patch reefs in Punta de San Blas using hand nets and the anaesthetic clove oil. These patch reefs were not the same reefs where daily samples of ?sh were collected. The ?sh were immediately trans- ferred to an aquarium and allowed to acclimatise for several days. Of the 10 individuals, 8 survived this per- iod and were then placed in an aquarium that contained a solution of 500 mg/l tetracycline in seawater. The aquarium was left in complete darkness for 24 h to al- low the tetracycline to be incorporated into the otoliths of the ?sh. The ?sh were then removed and left in another aquarium containing clean aerated seawater for 16 days. At this time, ?sh were sacri?ced and one sagittal otolith from each individual was processed for analysis as described above. The sagittal section was viewed under a high power microscope equipped with a UV light source. The number of increments following the ?uorescent tetracycline mark within the otolith was counted and compared to the number of days ?sh were kept in aquarium after being marked. The sagittal oto- lith of six out of eight individuals displayed a ?uorescent mark. Counts of increments from this mark to the edge of the otolith closely approximated the number of days the ?sh were left in an aquarium after their re- moval from the tetracycline solution (mean=16.7?0.3 days; range=14?18 days), con?rming daily increment formation. Environmental variables As environmental monitoring in the Punta de San Blas began only in the early 1990s, the physical data used in this study were obtained from the Galeta Marine Lab- oratory on Galeta Point, approximately 5 km east of the entrance to the Panama Canal and 100 km northwest of Punta de San Blas. A previous study has shown that wind measured at Punta de San Blas is strongly corre- lated to wind strength and direction at Galeta Point (Robertson et al. 1999). Hourly measurements of sea surface temperature, rainfall, wind speed and direction and solar radiation were available from monitoring at Galeta Point (see http://striweb.si.edu/esp/physical_monitoring/download_ galeta.htm). Daily averages were calculated except for rainfall. This was recorded as a total (mm/day). Wind directions were separated into orthogonal components using cosine and sine functions that were then multiplied by the average daily wind speed to derive north?south (cosine) and east?west (sine) vectors. On a large spatial scale (10 s of km), the north?south component of the wind resulted in o?shore-onshore winds, while the east-westerly component generated along-shore winds at our study sites. Growth, settlement and pelagic larval duration (PLD) The ages derived from otolith analyses were used as estimates of pelagic larval duration (PLD) since ?sh were collected on the day of settlement. Otolith growth was used as an estimate of somatic growth thus avoiding the errors introduced by back-calculation of ?sh size from otoliths (Chambers and Miller 1995). Otolith growth was measured over three time periods: from 0 to 6 days, 7 to 25 days and from 26 to 50 days after hatching. The ?rst of these periods represents the likely duration of feeding by newly hatched larvae on food supplied by the yolk sac (Randall 1961). Bergenius et al. (2002) identi?ed 7?25 days after hatching as a period of rapid growth of Acanthurus chirurgus that has a major in?uence on the magnitude of settlement and recruit- ment of this species. On average, the mean larval dura- tion of A. chirurgus is 55 days; 50 days after hatching 92% of the individuals are still pelagic (Bergenius 1998). The ?nal growth period thus encompassed most of the remainder of the PLD of this species. As individuals collected during the same lunar month varied in the length of their PLD, monthly data sets of ?sh settlement were reorganised by the date on which individual ?sh had hatched before the relationship be- tween environmental variables and larval growth was examined. Hatch-dates could easily be determined as otolith examination provided an estimate of age and the collection date of each individual was known. By reor- ganising monthly data sets of ?sh settlement by hatch- date, individual growth histories were standardised so that they could be compared with the environmental conditions experienced by individuals on each day of their larval lives. Growth, PLD and settlement data in lunar months with less than two newly settled individ- uals, after reorganising by hatch-date, were pooled with data of the succeeding month. From this information, a mean environmental history and averages of PLD and growth rates could be calculated for each individual ?sh and subsequently for each lunar cohort to reduce the variable nature of individual responses to environmental signals (Chambers and Leggett 1987). This yielded a data set of 36 lunar cohorts for which there was su?- cient data to analyze (12 lunar months in the dry season and 24 lunar months in the wet). Environmental variables were also compared with the magnitude of settlement on a monthly basis after set- tlement data sets had been reorganised by hatch-date. Catches were standardised to numbers per 100 m2 and were log10 transformed in order to reduce the e?ects of small-scale (10s to 100s of meters) patchiness in settle- ment (Doherty and Williams 1988). Comparison of environmental and biological variables The in?uence of the environmental variables on PLD, planktonic growth and settlement intensity was exam- ined using multiple regressions. These were used to ?nd 293 leading indicators for any time series (e.g. growth) from other time series without lagged e?ects (Davies 2002). Analyses were run three times. The ?rst included only data sets from dry seasons, the second only data from wet seasons and the third analysis the complete data set. Multiple regression analyses were run using SAS (1987) software. The ??all possible subsets technique?? was used to produce an optimum predictive model. For q inde- pendent variables there are 2q possible models to predict Y. Out of all possible models the best three for each q were selected based on maximum R2 (the coe?cient of multiple determination) and Mallow?s Cp selection sta- tistics. Mallow?s Cp measures the best possible ?t of a model based on whether or not the error mean square contains only random variation (Draper and Smith 1981). The best model was then selected based on the lowest Cp. As strong correlations among independent variables can mask or exaggerate outcomes of regression models, correlation matrices, partial correlations and tolerance levels were calculated for environmental vari- ables and examined for evidence of collinearity. When strong collinearity was detected the environmental var- iable displaying the strongest correlation to other inde- pendent variables was excluded from the multiple regression. In all models, the adjusted coe?cient of multiple determination (R2adj) was calculated and used for interpretation rather than the R2, since the former takes into consideration the number of degrees of free- dom (Quinn and Keough 2002). Environmental vari- ables were often log10 transformed to conform to the assumption of normality made by the analysis. Bivariate and partial correlations were calculated using the SPSS statistical package. As the outcomes of multiple regression analyses are very susceptible to outliers, Cook?s distances (Cook?s D) were calculated for each data point. This statistic esti- mated the amount residuals would change by excluding a case from computation in a regression analysis. Cases with a large Cook?s D (i.e. extreme outliers) were re- moved from the analysis, as these can falsify parameter estimates of a regression model (Barnett and Lewis 1994). Results Environmental seasonality There are two distinct seasons in Caribbean Panama, a wet season from mid-April to mid-December and a dry season for the remainder of the year (Cubit et al. 1989). Seasonal averages, maxima and minima of water tem- perature, rainfall, solar radiation, and wind speed re- corded at Galeta Point for the period of the study are presented in Table 1. During the wet season from mid- April to mid-December winds are light and variable in direction (Fig. 1) and there are heavy rains. Strong on- shore winds from a northerly direction (Fig. 1), increased solar radiation and cooler water temperatures characte- rise the dry season, which encompasses the remainder of the year. Patterns of ?sh settlement Settlement varied from 0 to 660 A. chirugus per 100 m2 of patch reef per lunar month over the 43-month sam- pling period (Fig. 2). Settlement peaked from November through to January of each year. Settlement of A. chir- urgus on patch reefs was correlated (r=0.75) to recruitment measured on eight large (>300 m2) reefs spread over a 15 km2 area that were censused during the week before the new moon, when settlement peaks (Robertson 1992), indicating that patch reef collections were a good estimate of larger scale patterns of recruitment. Environmental correlates of larval growth Otolith growth from 0 to 6 days after hatching When the data sets were pooled among seasons, rainfall and solar radiation had a weak in?uence on the growth of Acanthurus chirurgus during the ?rst 6 days of planktonic life (Table 2). However, when dry and wet seasons were analysed separately, regression models accounted for greater amounts of variability in otolith growth in early larval life. In the dry season, solar radiation accounted for 57% of the variation in growth and these variables were negatively correlated (Table 2; Rp: 0.85; Fig. 3a). Dur- ing the wet season, the model accounted for less (38%) of the variation in the data set, and rainfall and along-shore windswere selected by themodel as factors that in?uenced early growth rates. The partial correlation between rain- fall and early larval growth was negative (Table 2; Rp: 0.47), while the relationship between along-shore winds and growth was positive (Table 2; Rp: 0.53). During the wet season along-shore winds were dominated by winds from a westerly direction (Fig. 2). Otolith growth from 7 to 25 days after hatching The regression model of the complete data set accounted for 38% of the variability in growth of Acanthurus chirurgus Table 1 Means, maxima and minima of environmental variables during wet and dry seasons measured at Galeta Point from July 1984 to December 1987. The data were recorded by the Marine Environmental Science Program of the Smithsonian Tropical Re- search Institute Variable Season Mean?SE Maxima Mininima Temperature (C) Wet 28.18?0.02 30.00 25.75 Dry 27.06?0.04 28.60 25.17 Rainfall (mm day1) Wet 10.57?0.68 204.60 0 Dry 1.35?0.28 54.70 0 Solar radiation (watts m2) Wet 3918.98?55.91 7234.00 205 Dry 5183.54?81.18 7291.00 819 Wind speed (ms1) Wet 2.55?0.13 3.82 1.77 Dry 5.37?0.20 6.70 4.32 294 between 7 and 25 days after hatching and identi?ed only solar radiation as a signi?cant in?uence on growth rates (Table 2; Rp: 0.58). In the dry season, along-shore winds and growth were highly correlated (Table 2; R: 0.94; Fig. 3b) and the regression model accounted for as much as 87% of the variation in growth. While the along-shore wind component was positively correlated with growth from 0 to 6 days, it was strongly negatively correlated with growth from 7 to 25 days after hatching. No signi?cant relationship was found between the environmental variables and growth from 7 to 25 days after hatching during the wet season. Otolith growth from 26 to 50 days after hatch- ing Multiple regression analysis of the entire data set could not identify any combination of environmental variables that were correlated with growth between 26 and 50 days after hatching (Table 2). However, these analyses were signi?cant when the data were split into wet and dry seasons. In the latter season, there was a strong positive correlation between rainfall and otolith growth (Table 2; Rp: 0.87; Fig. 3c). Growth at this time was also correlated with along-shore winds (Table 2,Rp: 0.66) and together these environmental variables accounted for 74% of the variation in growth. During the wet season, only 27% of the variability in larval growth could be ac- counted for by environmental factors (Table 2; rainfall and temperature; Rp: 0.55 and 0.49, respectively). Environmental correlates of planktonic larval duration As much as 65% of the variability in pelagic larval duration could be explained by a regression model that included solar radiation and along-shore winds (Table 2; Rp solar radiation: 0.64; Rp along-shore wind: 0.26). When regressions analysed wet and dry season data sets separately, along-shore winds accounted for 67% of the variability in PLD during the dry season (Table 2; R: 0.84; Fig. 4a), while solar radiation accounted for 23% of the variation in larval duration in the wet season (Table 2; R: 0.51). Environmental correlates of settlement magnitude Environmental variables accounted for only 22% of the variation in numbers of settlers arriving on patch reefs for the dry and wet seasons combined (Table 2). In this model, the magnitude of settlement was negatively cor- related to solar radiation and water temperature (Ta- ble 2; Rp: 0.52 and ?0.32, respectively). Analysis of dry season data produced a model that accounted for a greater amount of the variation in settlement (40%) and included the environmental variables of rainfall and solar radiation. Both were negatively correlated with settlement patterns (Table 2; Rp rainfall: 0.63 and Rp solar radiation: 0.70; Fig. 4b). Due to the high col- Fig. 1 Average monthly along- shore wind (ms1 ? direction) and onshore-o?shore wind (ms1 ? direction) at Galeta Point during the study period. d Represents months in the dry season and w indicates months in the wet season Fig. 2 Acanthurus chirurgus. Numbers of A. chirurgus settling per lunar month on two patch-reefs in Punta de San Blas in Panama, Caribbean, from July 1984 to December 1987. Settlers were standardised to numbers per 100 m2. The value above each bar is the number of ?sh sampled for otolith analysis 295 linearity (R: 0.9) among wind variables and temperature in the dry season, the latter was excluded from the analysis. Multiple regression analysis could not identify a model that accounted for a signi?cant amount of variation in settlement magnitude during the wet season. Discussion The strength and direction of the relationships between growth and environmental variables di?ered with larval stage, suggesting that the impact of the environment on growth of larval Acanthurus chirurgus is dependent on ontogeny. Moreover, correlations between planktonic growth, PLD, settlement intensity and environmental variables were stronger during the dry than the wet seasons and usually involved di?erent combinations of environmental variables each season. This suggests that future studies of tropical ?sh larvae that examine the in?uence of environmental variables on early life his- tory characteristics require the data to be analysed separately for each season, as is the case for temperate studies. Growth Di?erent combinations of the environmental variables solar radiation, rainfall and along-shore winds ac- counted for a varying amount (from 13% to 86%) of the changes in otolith growth of Acanthurus chirurgus from hatching until the time of settlement. In the ?rst 6 days Table 2 Acanthurus chirurgus. Summary of results of multiple regression analyses that compared water temperature (C), rainfall (mm day1), solar radiation (watts m2), onshore-o?shore wind (ms1 ? wind direction) and alongshore wind (ms1 ? wind direction) with larval growth (otolith growth in microns), pelagic larval duration (days) and settlement intensity of A. chirurgus. Larval growth was analysed from 0 to 6, 7 to 25 and 26 to 50 days after hatching. Analyses were repeated on the entire data set and on data separated into wet and dry seasons. See text for details of analysis techniques. C(p) = Mallow?s Cp (selection criteria),n = number of replicates (lunar months) included in the regression analysis, R2 = coe?cient of multiple determination,R2 adj = adjusted coe?cient of multiple determination, P (F-test) = signi?cance values of the F-test associated with the ANOVA computed to test the null hypothesis: all the b?s are 0 (bi=pop- ulation parameter for the slope of the linear relationship between a dependent variable and an independent variables), where alpha was put at 0.05, independent variables = the environmental variables included in the optimum predictive model selected by the regression analysis, P (t-test) = signi?cance values of the t- test computed to test the null hypothesis: bi = 0, of the linear relationship between a dependent variable and an independent variables with all the other independent variables partialled out (i.e. it is a test for the partial correlations), ns = the F or t-test was not signi?cant and in which the case signi?cance value was not reported, Rp = partial correlation coe?cient. The symbol  = when only one variable was selected by the analysis Pearson?s correlation coe?cient (R) is given. The number of months iden- ti?ed as outliers and excluded from the analysis is in parentheses following the number of replicates Dependent variable Cp R2adj R 2 P (F-test) Independent variables Rp P (t-test) Growth 0?6 n=35 (1) 2.14 0.13 0.18 0.040 Rainfall 0.42 0.014 Solar radiation 0.33 0.049 Growth 0?6 dry season n=11 (2) 4.94 0.57 0.73 0.038 Solar radiation 0.85 0.004 Onshore-o?shore wind 0.58 ns Along-shore wind 0.60 ns Rainfall 0.54 ns Growth 0?6 wet season n=23 (1) 2.77 0.38 0.47 0.007 Rainfall 0.47 0.033 Solar radiation 0.35 ns Along-shore wind 0.53 0.013 Growth 7?25 n=35 (1) 1.93 0.38 0.41 0.000 Solar radiation 0.58 <0.001 Along-shore wind 0.30 ns Growth 7?25 dry season n=10 (2) 0.5 0.86 0.88 0.000 Alongshore wind 0.94  <0.001 Growth 7?25 wet season n=24 0.04 0.01 0.04 ns Solar radiation 0.19  ns Growth 26?50 n=35 (1) 4.94 0.15 0.22 ns Temperature 0.29 ns Rainfall 0.39 0.026 Solar radiation 0.32 ns Along-shore wind 0.23 ns Growth 26?50 dry season n=12 1.84 0.74 0.79 0.001 Rainfall 0.87 <0.001 Along-shore wind 0.66 0.026 Growth 26?50 wet season n=23 (1) 1.27 0.27 0.33 0.017 Temperature 0.49 0.020 Rainfall 0.55 0.008 PLD n=35 (1) 0.33 0.65 0.67 0.000 Solar radiation 0.64 0.000 Along-shore wind 0.26 0.016 PLD dry season n=12 -0.75 0.67 0.69 0.001 Along-shore wind 0.84  0.001 PLD wet season n=23 (1) 0.89 0.23 0.26 0.013 Solar radiation 0.51  0.013 Settlers n=36 2.02 0.22 0.27 0.006 Solar radiation 0.52 0.001 Temperature 0.32 0.045 Settlers dry season n=12 1.85 0.40 0.51 0.041 Rainfall 0.63 0.037 Solar radiation 0.70 0.017 Settlers wet season n=24 2.20 0.13 0.21 ns Rainfall 0.33 ns Onshore-o?shore wind 0.42 0.045 296 of larval life, growth rates were negatively correlated with the amount of sunlight during the dry season, a result that contrasts with the outcomes of previous studies. Typically, these have found that sunlight has a positive, albeit indirect e?ect on larval growth (Heath et al. 1988; Gallego et al. 1996) by warming surface waters and increasing food production (Cushing 1990; Heath 1992; 1995). Recent work, however, has shown that high levels of light may negatively a?ect ?sh larvae. Ultraviolet radiation may induce direct damage to the DNA and proteins of eggs and larvae, causing reduced growth or death (Lesser et al. 2001; Zagarese and Wil- liamson 2001). Moreover, Boeuf and Le Bail (1999) suggest that beyond an upper intensity, sunlight may decrease growth and even be deadly due to negative impacts on visual development, which in turn will a?ect feeding activities and prey selection. Our results suggest that the high levels of sunlight that occur during the dry season in Punta de San Blas may detrimentally a?ect growth rates. Alternatively, sunlight may make larvae more susceptible to predators during early develop- mental stages, when sensory and locomotory systems are poorly developed. This may a?ect survivorship or could force young ?sh deeper in the water column, away from the depth of optimal light intensities for feeding and growth (Fortier and Harris 1989). In addition to sunlight, rainfall was also negatively correlated with growth of Acanthurus chirugus up to 6 days after hatching, although unlike solar radiation, this correlation was signi?cant during the wet season. Fig. 3a?c Acanthurus chirurgus. a Partial regression plot of growth (microns) of A. chirurgus from 0 to 6 days after hatching and solar radiation (watts m2) during the dry season, corrected for the e?ects of along-shore wind (ms1 ? wind direction), onshore-o?shore wind (m/s ? wind direction) and rainfall (mm/day). b Regression plot of growth (microns) from 7 to 25 days after hatching and along-shore winds (ms1 ? wind direction) during the dry season. c Partial regression plot of growth (microns) from 26 to 50 days after hatching and rainfall (mm/day) during the dry season, corrected for the e?ect of along-shore wind 297 Heavy rains in the wet season that decrease salinity in surface layers may be detrimental to young larvae due to their small surface to volume ratio and lack of protective scaling against changes in the osmotic environment. A turbid upper layer of fresh water may also reduce light penetration and thus feeding by young ?sh. However, heavy rains are also associated with increased run-o? from rivers and nutrients in inshore environments (D?Croz et al. 1999), potentially resulting in better feeding conditions for larger, more developed larvae. This may explain the positive relationship between rainfall and growth of larvae 26?50 days after hatching in both the dry and the wet seasons. There was a complex relationship between growth of Acanthurus chirurgus larvae and winds. Growth up to 6 days after hatching was positively correlated with along-shore winds, negatively correlated from 7 to 25 days after hatching and again positively correlated with along-shore winds after 25 days. While variations in winds might in?uence growth at local scales by directing the surface waters and the food sources they contain away from or along the coast, little evidence exists to assess this possibility. It has been hypothesised that winds may a?ect growth in larval ?sh due to their in?uence on small-scale turbulence. At optimum levels, turbulence is thought to increase the probability of encounter between larval ?sh predators and their prey, thus increasing growth rates and survivorship (Gallego et al. 1996; Dower et al. 1997). It is possible that the complex relationship between growth and wind identi- ?ed in this study is actually a re?ection of a change in the interaction between wind-induced turbulence and growth throughout ontogeny. Water temperature was not signi?cantly correlated with growth rates of larval Acanthurus chirugus in the ?rst 25 days of larval life, although there was a weak negative correlation between these variables after this time during the wet season. This result di?ers from studies in temperate and other tropical regions where water temperature is thought to be one of the primary determinants of growth rates (Campana and Hurley 1989; Suthers and Sundby 1993; Meekan et al. 2003). In tropical NW Australia, Meekan et al. (2003) found that water temperature explained 30% of the variation in growth rate of a larval pomacentrid. These contrasting results may be due to the relatively small temporal (seasonal, monthly and diurnal) ranges in temperatures that occur in Punta de San Blas (Table 1). Pelagic larval duration Our analysis suggested up to 65% of the variability in the PLD of Acanthurus chirugus could be accounted for by a regression model that included the variables of along-shore winds and solar radiation. When seasons were analysed separately, along-shore winds were strongly correlated with PLD in the dry season (R=0.84), while solar radiation was moderately corre- lated (R=0.51) with PLD in the wet season. The positive relationship between along-shore winds and PLD is surprising, given that such winds were positively corre- Fig. 4a, b Acanthurus chirurgus. a The regression relationship between pelagic larval duration (PLD; days) and along-shore winds (ms1 ? wind direction) during the dry season. b Partial regression plot of number of settlers and solar radiation (watts m2) during the dry season, corrected for the e?ect of rainfall (mm/day) 298 lated to early and late larval growth. Fast growing larvae might be expected to have shorter larval durations than slow growing larvae and we found a signi?cant negative correlation between average growth to settlement and larval duration (regression analysis, r2=0.45 P<0.001, n=603). One possibility that might account for this result is that some compensatory growth oc- curred during the late larval phase, so that larvae that were small at earlier stages grew relatively fast at this time. Such explanations assume that larvae do not typ- ically delay settlement, and this delay appears to be the case in this species (Bergenius 1998). Our results suggest that solar radiation (and with it UV radiation exposure) may have a negative e?ect on the development of the pelagic eggs and larvae of acanthurids, as there was a positive correlation between solar radiation and PLD of Acanthurus chirurgus during the dry season. Recent work suggests that the early life history stages of ?shes and invertebrates are particularly sensitive to the UV radiation present in natural sunlight (Lesser et al. 2001; Zagarese and Williamson 2001). The positive correlation between solar radiation and PLD was consistent with the negative relationship between solar radiation and otolith growth up to 25 days, since a longer larval duration is likely to be a consequence of decreased growth. Numbers of settlers per lunar month Solar radiation and temperature explained 22% of the variability in numbers of settlers arriving on patch reefs each lunar month when data were pooled between sea- sons. When analysed separately, solar radiation and rainfall were both negatively correlated with settlement and the regression model described 40% of the vari- ability in settlement intensity. The e?ect of these vari- ables on settlement might be explained by their in?uence on growth rates, given that Bergenius et al. (2002) and Wilson and Meekan (2002) have demonstrated that growth during the early larval stages is an important determinant of the numbers of ?sh surviving the planktonic phase. As noted previously, high levels of sunlight may decrease growth rates or increase egg mortality rates (Frank and Leggett 1981). Similarly, if heavy rains, which also occur occasionally in the Caribbean during the dry season, dramatically change osmotic environments, there might be a resulting in- crease in mortality of ?sh eggs and newly hatched larvae. Our study suggests that the environmental variables of solar radiation, along-shore winds and rainfall may be used to predict the growth of Acanthurus chirurgus larvae at di?erent stages of their pelagic life and that the impact of environmental variables on replenishment may vary between seasons. To date, most studies of the e?ects of the environment on life history characteristics of marine ?shes have examined only one environmental variable. We suggest that the outcomes of such studies should be treated with caution and that as many vari- ables as possible should be included in tests of envi- ronmental in?uences. Acknowledgements Statistical advice was gratefully received from D. Ryan, D. Donald and D. Coomans. We are grateful to B. 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